Financial markets remained in a holding pattern ahead of the US nonfarm payroll report due later today, with traders shifting their focus from the tariff turmoil that dominated sentiment earlier in the week. The release is expected to provide fresh direction, as a weaker-than-anticipated print could reinforce expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts, while a robust number may temper those bets.
Consensus forecasts point to 175,000 new jobs added in the latest report. Meanwhile, separate data on Thursday revealed an uptick in initial jobless claims, though labor productivity remained solid. In addition to headline job growth, Wall Street will scrutinize revisions to previous employment data expected to be notable but unlikely to dramatically alter the broader labor market narrative.
If the report falls within the anticipated range of 170,000-200,000 jobs, market reaction may remain subdued. However, an outlier figure could significantly shift expectations an upside surprise could dampen hopes for rate cuts, while a substantial downside miss could stoke fears of a labor market slowdown.
Gold and Oil React to Shifting Macro Sentiment
In commodities, gold rebounded after pulling back from record highs on Thursday, snapping a six-session rally. Oil prices also edged higher after a previous-day decline, as President Trump’s renewed commitment to lowering crude prices overshadowed concerns over tighter Iranian sanctions.
Yen Faces Pressure as Dollar Momentum Softens
The Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar, on track for its first decline in five sessions. While hawkish rhetoric from Japanese policymakers has provided some support for the yen, the greenback has lost some of its recent momentum. With central bank policy shifts and broader macroeconomic factors at play, currency markets remain poised for volatility.
Traders should stay attuned to today’s payroll report, as its implications for monetary policy and risk sentiment could set the tone for market moves in the coming sessions. Precision in positioning remains key as economic data continues to drive short-term market direction.