Market Outlook

Traders are recalibrating portfolios as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates. Optimism about imminent Fed easing, bolstered by signs of resilience in US retail sales, has supported a shift towards risk-on sentiment. However, the increasing likelihood of a Donald Trump presidency has simultaneously heightened concerns over potential geopolitical and trade […]

The U.S. dollar surged and Treasury futures declined as investors heightened their bets on a potential Donald Trump victory in the upcoming presidential election following an assassination attempt. The greenback appreciated against all Group-of-10 currencies, while futures indicated a rise in Treasury yields as European cash trading loomed. These market moves reflect expectations that a Trump administration would

U.S. inflation data bolstered the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Treasury yields remaining stable following a significant drop. The prospect of lower interest rates sent 10-year yields down by seven basis points to 4.21% in the previous session. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee hailed the CPI data as “excellent,” noting that it provided

Traders are bracing for a pivotal U.S. consumer inflation report, with the dollar falling against most major currencies ahead of the release. The upcoming data is expected to indicate easing price pressures, potentially increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy costs and is considered

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell refrained from specifying a timeline for interest rate cuts in his testimony to lawmakers on Tuesday. However, he highlighted increasing signs of a cooling job market, citing government data that showed a third consecutive month of rising unemployment. Shorter-term Treasuries outperformed on expectations that they would benefit more from potential policy easing.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will commence his semi-annual testimony to Congress on Tuesday, a critical event that could influence market expectations for a September interest-rate cut. Market participants are pricing in the likelihood of two rate cuts this year, with a 70% chance of the first cut in September, according to swaps data. Powell is under

Global equities are reaching new peaks as traders shift their focus to Friday’s pivotal US jobs report. China’s central bank has announced its intention to curb the ongoing market rally by selling government bonds, with “hundreds of billions” of yuan in securities ready to be deployed through agreements with lenders. A benchmark for global stocks surged to

A spate of soft economic data has bolstered the case for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, leading to a third consecutive session of declines for the dollar. Reports on Wednesday revealed the American services sector contracted at its fastest pace in four years, while the labor market continued to show signs of softening. These developments have

Optimism about US interest-rate cuts surged after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation is on a downward trajectory. Investors are now closely monitoring US initial jobless claims and ADP employment data due on Wednesday for further insights into the policy outlook. Powell acknowledged the central bank has made “quite a bit of progress” in reducing

Traders are positioning ahead of critical data releases on Eurozone CPI and US job openings to anticipate central bank rate decisions. In Europe, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated that there is insufficient evidence to suggest that inflationary threats have subsided, reinforcing expectations that the ECB might pause interest rate cuts this month. The euro remained relatively stable